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Fitch: Eurozone stabilization improving ratings outlook

Sun 20, July 2014 Kategori Economy
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has said on Thursday that a stabilization in the eurozone has supported an improving trend in global sovereign rating actions.

The rating agency's "Report of 2014 Mid-year Sovereign Review and Outlook " has been published on Thursday.

"A stabilisation in the eurozone has supported an improving trend in global sovereign rating actions and a rebalancing towards fewer Negative Outlooks in the first half of fiscal 2014, indicating that downward pressure on sovereign creditworthiness has reduced,” the agency said in a statement.

According to the agency, this improving trend reflects principally the stabilisation and improvement of sovereign ratings and outlooks in the developed market economies, particularly the eurozone. Relatively, Fitch noted, "For the first time since 2009, no eurozone countries are on Negative Outlook."

The credit rating agency stressed that the net upward momentum in emerging market sovereign ratings since 2010 had stalled, extending a trend observed in 2013, as many faced more challenging growth conditions, difficult policy trade-offs and political or geopolitical pressures.

"This represents further evidence that the secular trend of convergence in the ratings of developed market and emerging market sovereigns is starting to reverse.”

The London-based agency forecasts global economic growth to accelerate gradually to 2.7 percent in 2014 and 3.1 percent in 2015 and 2016, from 2.4 percent in 2013.

"Growth will largely result from a firmer and more balanced recovery across developed markets, although weak world trade and higher oil prices add to risks. We forecast growth in emerging markets at 4.3 percent in 2014, 4.8 percent in 2015 and 4.9 percent in 2016, down from 4.7 percent in 2013, reflecting constraints from infrastructure bottlenecks, weak business environments and unbalanced growth that have reduced medium-term growth potential in many countries,” Fitch said.

In addition, Fitch Ratings mentioned tensions in eastern Europe and Iraq as factors affecting global trade.

"The Russia/Ukraine crisis remains unresolved, although the near-term macro-economic implications are manageable for the global economy. More recently, intensifying insurgency in Iraq has potentially widespread but uncertain implications throughout the region and beyond, due to the impact on Sunni/Shia tensions and the role of key players such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and the US.”

Fitch added that medium- to long-term growth rates are likely to come under downward pressure from a combination of weaker productivity growth and negative demographics stemming from ageing populations.

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